Nick Kumleben, Director at Greenmantle, returns to the podcast to unpack the latest developments in the Israel–US conflict with Iran and what markets are signalling beneath the headlines.
The discussion explores what commodities markets are revealing about the likely duration of the conflict, the incentive structures shaping state and market behaviour, and how traders are navigating a period of exceptional volatility. Particular attention is given to the role of US Treasury trading, where rumour and innuendo are increasingly driving price action.
Nick also examines the potential implications of disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, the consequences for mining and supply chains, and whether a physical escalation could paradoxically ease prices. The conversation closes with a broader look at why equity markets remain relatively calm, and whether geopolitical risk, combined with stress in private credit, could accelerate the path toward a wider financial crisis.
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