What does the future hold for commodity trading? Is volatility now a permanent feature of the market, and will the profit pools available continue to expand as a result? How will market structure evolve over the next decade, and who will be the privileged few building the trading platforms that can capture that future?
What will that future look like? Who will participate, and which player categories will hold the largest market share? And as the landscape changes, what kinds of teams, skills, and talent will succeed in this world?
Speaking to our host Paul Chapman on this episode is Roland Rechsteiner, partner at McKinsey and the global head of their commodity trading and risk practice.
Read below for our key talent impacts from this episode.
Key Talent Impacts
Is sustained volatility structurally increasing demand for trading and risk talent?
The shift to a higher and more volatile profit pool creates a permanent need for experienced traders, risk managers and commercial leaders. Volatility is no longer cyclical but structural, driven by geopolitics, energy transition policy, sanctions and supply underinvestment. This raises demand for professionals who can manage downside risk as well as monetise short, repeated market dislocations, particularly in oil, gas, power, LNG and metals.
Is access to capital becoming a decisive factor in who can attract and retain top trading talent?
Access to risk capital and working capital is now a decisive talent differentiator. Firms able to deploy large VAR quickly attract and retain top traders and originators, while publicly listed or capital-constrained organisations struggle to compete. This dynamic favours merchant traders, hedge funds and well-capitalised NOCs, concentrating senior talent within a smaller group of privileged platforms and accelerating market share consolidation.
Has senior origination talent become one of the scarcest capabilities in commodities?
As producers, miners, refiners and power companies build or expand trading functions, demand has intensified for senior originators who can secure flow through prepayments, structured offtake, equity-linked supply and long-term partnerships. Origination is increasingly the primary source of value, yet the talent pool remains thin due to limited development during the 2010s and an accelerating retirement wave among senior traders.
Are data science and AI skills reshaping front, middle and back office talent needs?
AI-driven trading models and agentic automation are transforming both profitability and cost structures. Demand is rising for data scientists, quantitative analysts and hybrid technologists who understand physical commodities, particularly in power and gas. At the same time, automation is reducing headcount requirements in middle and back office functions, shifting hiring towards higher-skilled, systems-literate professionals rather than transactional roles.
Is talent scarcity accelerating M&A and joint ventures as preferred entry strategies?
Because experienced trading teams cannot be built quickly, many new entrants are pursuing acquisitions or joint ventures with established trading houses. These structures provide immediate access to people, systems and trading culture. Talent scarcity is therefore acting as a catalyst for consolidation and partnership strategies, rather than purely a commercial or balance-sheet decision.
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Edited highlights and themes from the podcast episode.
Is volatility in commodity markets temporary or structural?
Volatility is now structural rather than cyclical. The podcast makes clear that commodity trading profit pools have reset at a materially higher level than the 2010s, driven by geopolitics, sanctions, energy transition policy and chronic underinvestment in supply. This environment creates sustained trading opportunities but also persistent risk, fundamentally changing how firms staff and structure their commercial teams.
How is this changing talent demand across energy and commodities?
Demand is rising sharply for experienced traders, risk managers and commercial leaders who can operate through repeated dislocations rather than occasional cycles. Firms increasingly need talent that can manage downside exposure, deploy capital quickly and navigate fragmented global flows across oil, gas, LNG, power and metals markets.
Why are some firms better positioned to attract top trading talent than others?
Access to risk capital and working capital has become a decisive differentiator. The transcript highlights that organisations able to deploy VAR rapidly are capturing outsized profits and attracting the strongest talent. This favours merchant traders, hedge funds and well-capitalised national oil companies, concentrating senior capability within a smaller group of platforms.
Which skills are becoming hardest to hire?
Senior origination talent is emerging as one of the scarcest capabilities. As producers and processors build trading arms, demand has intensified for professionals who can secure flow through structured offtake, prepayments and long-term partnerships. At the same time, data science and AI expertise is increasingly critical as trading becomes more analytics-driven.
How is AI reshaping commodity trading teams?
AI is transforming both profitability and cost structures. As discussed by Roland Rechsteiner of McKinsey, data-driven trading models are scaling rapidly, while agentic AI is reducing middle- and back-office costs and increasing operational speed. This is shifting hiring towards hybrid profiles combining market knowledge, technology and quantitative skills.
Q: What does this mean for firms without established trading teams?
Talent scarcity is accelerating mergers, acquisitions and joint ventures as faster routes to capability. With limited bench strength across the industry, many organisations are choosing partnership over organic build-out to secure people, systems and trading culture before the window closes.