As we approach the end of the year, what does the global macroeconomic outlook look like? What have been the key themes of 2025, and how have they played out across energy and global commodity markets? And what can we divine about 2026 economic forecasts? Are we heading toward stagflation, or facing a period of low volatility and subdued commodity markets? Or is this apparent stability simply the calm before the next market storm?
Speaking to our host Paul Chapman on this episode is David Fyfe, Chief Economist at Argus, the independent energy and commodity price reporting agency and market intelligence firm, who shares expert insights into the forces shaping global energy, commodities, and the macroeconomic landscape.
Read below for our key talent impacts from this episode.
Key Talent Impacts
Is demand for talent with geopolitical and macro-literate skills growing?
The increasing role of tariffs, trade policy, sanctions and state intervention has elevated the importance of professionals who can operate at the intersection of commodities, geopolitics and macroeconomics. Energy and commodities firms need talent that can interpret political risk, trade disruption and regulatory shifts, not just supply and demand fundamentals. This favours economists, strategists, policy-aware traders and analysts with a strong global context.
Are talent shortages emerging in upstream oil and gas?
The discussion highlights a structural talent gap in offshore exploration and upstream oil and gas, driven by a decade of underinvestment in junior talent and a looming retirement cliff. As exploration spending eventually rebounds after 2028, the sector risks facing a shortage of experienced geoscientists, engineers and project leaders. This creates long-term succession challenges and raises the strategic value of experienced upstream professionals.
Is demand rising for power, gas and data-centre energy expertise?
AI-driven data centre growth is reshaping power and natural gas markets, particularly in the US. This is increasing demand for talent with expertise in power markets, grid infrastructure, natural gas trading, LNG economics and data-centre energy procurement. Professionals who understand how digital infrastructure interacts with energy supply are becoming increasingly valuable across utilities, trading houses and infrastructure investors.
Are metal talents in increasing demand due to electrification and grid investment?
The long-term electrification and energy transition narrative is strengthening demand for talent in metals such as copper, lithium and nickel. Despite short-term macro headwinds, firms are investing in metals trading, mining strategy and supply chain roles. This is driving competition for experienced metals traders, originators, technical specialists and investment professionals, particularly those with exposure to emerging markets and political risk.
Is freight and logistics expertise becoming a strategic differentiator?
Volatile freight costs, sanctions and disrupted trade routes have elevated freight from a supporting function to a core strategic capability. The transcript underscores that many firms are underdeveloped in freight risk management. As a result, there is growing demand for freight traders, shipping analysts and logistics specialists who can manage cost volatility and arbitrage risk across energy and commodity flows.
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HC Commodities Podcast Briefing
What were the most consequential macroeconomic themes shaping energy and commodity markets in 2025?
Trade policy and tariffs were among the most significant forces in 2025. While energy was largely carved out of direct US tariffs, the broader impact on global trade, inflation expectations and risk premia influenced commodity pricing and investment decisions. Alongside this, loose fiscal policy in the US, persistent deficits and the dominance of AI-driven equity growth created an uneven macroeconomic backdrop that fed directly into power, gas and metals markets.
How has the AI boom influenced energy markets?
AI has become a critical driver of energy demand, particularly through the rapid expansion of data centres. This has been supportive of US power markets and natural gas demand, especially when combined with the build-out of LNG export capacity on the Gulf Coast. However, this narrative carries risk. A slowdown in AI investment or a breakthrough in energy-efficient computing could materially alter demand assumptions.
What is the outlook for oil markets and OPEC+ in 2026?
OPEC+ faces a challenging balance between defending prices and protecting market share. With subdued global demand growth and rising non-OPEC supply from the Americas, there is a risk of oversupply in 2026. While prices could fall temporarily, history suggests OPEC+ is likely to reintroduce production discipline rather than tolerate a prolonged price collapse.
How do China and Europe factor into the global commodities outlook?
Europe remains the economic laggard, constrained by high energy costs, weak productivity and fiscal pressure. China, meanwhile, is grappling with weak domestic demand and deflationary pressures, but continues to import significant volumes of commodities, partly driven by strategic stockpiling and state-led industrial policy rather than pure market economics.
Which commodity markets look most structurally compelling?
Metals, particularly copper, stand out over the medium term. Electrification, grid expansion and the energy transition require substantial increases in supply, yet investment in new mining capacity remains insufficient. This structural imbalance is likely to persist beyond short-term macro headwinds.