In this episode, we discuss the geo-politicisation of natural gas and the challenge that it presents to traders and investors alike.
What drives global natural gas prices more: power politics or supply and demand? Why was 2025 such a difficult year for traders? And what are the most consequential stories in natural gas for 2026?
Returning to the show to discuss these themes with host Paul Chapman is Anne-Sophie Corbeau, Global Research Scholar at the Center for Global Energy Policy.
Read below for our key talent impacts from this episode.
Key Talent Impacts
Has geopolitical analysis become a core skill for traders?
The transcript shows that natural gas markets are no longer driven primarily by supply and demand fundamentals. Trading decisions now depend heavily on understanding political moves by the US, Europe, China, and LNG-exporting nations. Traders and analysts must therefore upgrade their capabilities in political risk assessment, diplomatic context and scenario planning to stay competitive.
Does market volatility demand highly adaptive commercial talent?
2025 demonstrated that unexpected regulatory changes, storage policy adjustments and global political shocks repeatedly caught traders off guard. This environment requires professionals who can quickly interpret unclear signals, pivot positions, and manage risk exposure in a climate where traditional models provide less guidance.
Is LNG expertise becoming an essential growth domain?
A large wave of new LNG capacity is coming online globally. This shift creates demand for specialists in LNG trading, contract structuring, commercial negotiation, shipping and infrastructure planning. Companies will need more talent capable of integrating LNG market insight with broader gas and power system dynamics.
Is energy security reshaping corporate and national strategies?
China’s shifting approach to LNG supply, Europe’s reliance on US cargoes and regional concerns about affordability and supply shocks are changing investment decisions. Organisations will require talent skilled in long-term strategic planning, supply diversification and resilience building. This includes professionals who understand both hydrocarbons and the accelerating rise of renewables.
Are technical and strategic skills needed to navigate decarbonisation and demand uncertainty?
Demand patterns are diverging across regions. Industrial, residential and transport segments are evolving, while coal and renewables remain powerful competitors to gas. This creates a premium on talent able to model demand, evaluate new energy technologies and understand the implications of electrification, AI-driven load growth and domestic production trends. Future leaders must be able to operate between commercial strategy, policy frameworks and energy transition pathways.
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Why was 2025 such a difficult year for natural gas traders and investors?
2025 brought a series of unexpected shocks that repeatedly caught market participants off guard. Europe lost Ukrainian transit volumes, storage regulations shifted suddenly, and geopolitical disruptions caused abrupt price swings. Traders who expected sustained volatility instead faced price collapses after regulatory relaxation and unpredictable reactions to global events. This created significant losses across trading houses and hedge funds, demonstrating how fragile traditional market models have become.
How has geopoliticisation changed natural gas pricing and trading behaviour?
The balance has shifted decisively from fundamentals to geopolitics. Governments now exert far more influence on supply flows, export decisions and contract structures. Markets move less on weather or demand signals and more on diplomatic tensions, conflicts and policy announcements. This means traders must prioritise political risk analysis alongside supply and demand modelling.
What major LNG trends should the sector expect moving into 2026?
A substantial wave of LNG capacity is coming online from the United States, Canada, Qatar and Africa. This expansion will increase competition for market share, particularly in Asia. However, demand growth is uneven. China’s LNG imports fell in 2025, driven by strong domestic production and geopolitical concerns about exposure to certain suppliers. Southeast Asia remains cautious due to affordability issues and the legacy of supply insecurity during the 2022 crisis.
What does this mean for long-term energy security?
Countries are increasingly prioritising reliability over price. Some, like China, are considering a mix of domestic coal and renewables rather than over‑reliance on LNG. Europe, meanwhile, has replaced Russian pipeline gas with large volumes of US LNG, creating a new strategic dependency. This complex global landscape means energy security planning is now a critical capability for companies and policymakers.