Nick Kumleben, Director at Greenmantle, the geopolitical risk consultancy founded by Niall Ferguson, returns to the podcast to assess the latest developments in the Middle East. The discussion explores the short, medium and long-term implications of Israel and the United States’ joint military action, with a focus on global trade flows and commodities markets. Nick also examines potential non-linear effects across supply chains and pricing, and explains why the duration of the conflict may ultimately matter more than the initial shock.
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