As we begin to wrap up the year, we return to the crude markets. What has been oil’s journey in the latter half of 2025? What has all this meant for trader performances after a challenging first half? What is the outlook for 2026 in prices and volatility?
Speaking to our host Paul Chapman on this episode is Homayoun Falakshahi, Head of Crude Oil Analytics at Kpler, a data and analytics firm for the commodity markets.
Read below for our key talent impacts from this episode.
Key Talent Impacts
Is there greater demand for geopolitical literacy and risk-aware commercial judgement in the energy and commodities sector?
With oversupply colliding with persistent geopolitical instability across Russia, Ukraine, Iran, Venezuela and the Middle East, organisations increasingly need people who can interpret political signals, sanctions exposure and state behaviour. Traders, analysts and commercial leaders who link geopolitical events to market positioning are becoming central to performance in global energy markets and crude trading.
Are specialists in crude quality, refining systems and grade imbalances becoming more valuable for oil and energy employers?
The market is entering a phase where grade differentials matter more than outright prices. Light-sweet supply growth contrasts with rising demand for medium- and heavy-sour barrels in Asia and the Middle East. This increases demand for traders, schedulers and analysts with deep expertise in crude assays, refinery configurations, product-yield economics and physical optimisation. Such skills are becoming critical for competitive advantage in oil trading and refining strategy.
Is the expansion of data-driven skillsets now essential as oil-on-water volumes rise and trade flows become more complex?
The sharp increase in crude on water and the lengthening of trade routes highlight the importance of real-time analytics in the commodities sector. Energy employers increasingly seek individuals who can work with complex datasets, vessel-tracking tools, flow modelling, market structure analysis and integrated supply-demand intelligence. Data literacy is becoming a core requirement across trading, analytics and risk functions.
Is competition intensifying for product traders and downstream experts as refined products outperform crude?
2025 delivered more substantial returns from products trading, driven by diesel tightness, refinery outages, sanctions on Russian products and sustained volatility. This has strengthened the market position of diesel, gasoline and fuel-oil traders, as well as operators and analysts across the downstream value chain. Organisations are prioritising attraction and retention of these profiles as product desks become the main profit centres within energy trading.
Do workforce strategies need to adapt to plateauing oil demand, uncertain US shale output and long-term structural change?
China’s demand plateau, rapid EV adoption and questions surrounding the sustainability of US shale output signal a structurally different decade ahead. Companies need individuals who can work across multiple commodities, integrate petrochemical insights, understand portfolio optionality, and plan for a flatter long-term crude demand. Strategic thinkers and cross-commodity specialists will be increasingly important as the global energy system shifts.
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Edited highlights and themes from the podcast episode.
What defined the crude oil market in the second half of 2025?
The market was shaped by a clear tension between significant oversupply and persistent geopolitical risk. Large volumes of new supply came online, particularly from the Atlantic Basin, as Brazil, Guyana, Norway, Canada and Argentina ramped up production. At the same time, prices remained supported by geopolitical instability involving Russia, Ukraine, Iran and Venezuela, as well as Chinese stockpiling.
Why did global supply increase so sharply?
Many non-OPEC projects sanctioned years earlier reached full production at the same time, creating an unusual wave of new barrels. OPEC Plus unexpectedly raised output, reversing its previous strategy of withholding supply. This helped the group regain market share after two years of decline.
How has demand evolved, particularly in China?
China’s oil demand is plateauing due to rapid growth in electric vehicles. Core product demand is still rising but more slowly, with petrochemicals driving most future growth. China’s aggressive stockpiling absorbed around 90 per cent of the global oversupply from spring to December 2025.
Why has oil on water surged, and what does it signal?
Crude on water rose by more than 200 million barrels due to longer shipping routes, refinery closures in the West and sanctions on Russia and Iran. Despite the build, the market remains in backwardation, suggesting oversupply is partly offset by strong product markets and refining bottlenecks.
What is the outlook for 2026?
The market is expected to stay oversupplied, with grade imbalances becoming increasingly important. Light-sweet crude may be tighter, while medium-sour supply rises. US shale could reach a production peak, creating additional uncertainty. Geopolitics will remain a key risk factor, but significant price spikes look less likely given weakening global demand growth.