Recorded at the Canadian Crude Oil Conference in the wonderful Lake Louise in Canada on 17th September 2025, Randy Ollenberger, Managing Director at BMO Capital Markets, dives into global oil fundamentals, Canadian crude production in a changing world and what that means for oil and gas equities.
Sanctions, tariffs, pipeline expansions, and Canadian politicians (reacting to a very different relationship with the US) have led to profound changes and opportunities in this once-quiet sector. We extend our sincere thanks to the Board of the CCOC for the invitation.
Read below for our key talent impacts from this episode.
Key Talent Impacts
How is the shift from growth to capital discipline reshaping investment strategies in energy and commodities?
The energy and commodities sector has shifted from growth-driven expansion to a model emphasising capital discipline, shareholder returns, and cost efficiency. For talent, this creates demand for leaders with financial acumen, capital allocation expertise, and investor relations skills. Future executives will need to balance cost control with strategic investment, while communicating effectively with capital markets and institutional investors to build long-term confidence.
How are regulatory and political challenges shaping the skills needed to lead energy and commodities companies?
Oil and gas companies in Canada and beyond face complex regulatory hurdles and permitting challenges, particularly around pipeline approvals, carbon policy, and environmental regulation. This dynamic requires leaders with expertise in government relations, stakeholder engagement, and policy negotiation. Talent that can navigate political uncertainty, align with climate frameworks, and shape pragmatic regulatory pathways will be critical to sustaining competitiveness in global energy markets.
What new technical and commercial capabilities are required to drive innovation in energy production?
Innovation in energy production is accelerating, with advances in the oil sands, shale, and carbon capture technologies reshaping operational models. Future success will depend on professionals who combine engineering innovation, emissions-reduction expertise, and operational optimisation with strong commercial awareness. Talent with the ability to integrate low-carbon technologies into traditional production and deliver both cost and emissions efficiencies will be central to the energy transition.
How can energy and commodities leaders align ESG performance with investor expectations?
Investors are intensifying scrutiny of environmental, social, and governance (ESG) performance across the global commodities sector. While Canadian oil and gas firms often rank highly on governance and social responsibility, they continue to face challenges on the environmental side. Leaders who can credibly communicate progress, embed sustainability strategies into business models, and align ESG reporting with capital market expectations will be best positioned to attract global investment and enhance long-term resilience.
Which skills are most critical as companies expand trading and optimisation to manage market volatility?
Global shifts in oil flows, energy security, and commodities trading highlight the strategic importance of Canadian crude and other resources. As companies expand into trading, optimisation, and risk management, there is growing demand for professionals with expertise in physical trading, supply chain management, and financial risk analysis. The future workforce must be able to connect upstream operations with trading desks, leveraging data, analytics, and optimisation strategies to capture value in volatile markets.
HC Group is a global search firm dedicated to the energy and commodities markets.
Learn more about our Liquid Fuels and Chemicals Talent Practice
Explore the full HC Commodities Podcast archive
HC Commodities Podcast Briefing
Edited highlights and themes from the podcast episode.
Where does global oil and gas investment stand today?
Investment levels have fallen sharply compared to a decade ago. In 2008, oil and gas accounted for over 12% of the S&P 500 in the US and 23% of the TSX in Canada. Today, that has dropped to around 2.75% in the US and 13.5% in Canada. Current global investment is about $500 billion annually, but analysts suggest closer to $700 billion is needed to sustain production and offset decline rates, particularly in US shale. Under-investment risks future supply gaps.
How is physical production shaping oil markets?
Production has risen in line with slower demand growth, averaging 700,000–800,000 barrels per day in 2023. However, new supply from Guyana, Brazil, Canada, and the Middle East is entering the market just as seasonal demand weakens, creating near-term price pressure. In the longer term, limited project pipelines and reserve replacement challenges raise concerns about supply security.
What role does Canadian heavy crude play?
Canadian oil sands are a low-cost, base-load source of supply, often misunderstood as high-cost. Unlike US shale, they have minimal decline rates, making them strategically important. Canada currently produces approximately 5.5 million barrels per day, with most exports destined for the US refining system, which is configured to process heavy crude. Increasingly, barrels are also reaching Asia via TMX and US Gulf Coast re-exports.
What are the constraints on Canadian growth?
The primary challenge is pipeline capacity and regulatory hurdles, rather than resources. Canada holds the world’s third-largest reserves and could add significant output if export routes expand. Policy alignment between carbon capture initiatives and pipeline approvals will be key to unlocking this potential.