In this episode, our host Paul Chapman discusses the impact of conflict and war on commodity markets through the lens of a brand new book by Dennis Voznesenski: War and Wheat. Dennis is an agricultural economist at the Commonwealth Bank of Australia and, prior to that, at Rabobank.
Thoroughly researched, War and Wheat tells the story of how agricultural markets fared during World War I, World War II, and the recent Russian invasion of Ukraine, and elucidates key learnings on how commodity markets function and how commodity traders can better navigate the more volatile times ahead. The book is available here.
Read below for our key talent impacts from this episode.
Key Talent Impacts
Are you prepared for the growing demand for geopolitical literacy in the talent market?
Commodity professionals, including traders, strategists, and executives, now require a much deeper understanding of geopolitics. The golden age of relatively predictable, economics-driven markets has given way to one where war, sanctions, and statecraft are dominant forces. Talent pipelines will need to shift accordingly—firms must prioritise hiring and developing people who can interpret geopolitical signals and translate them into commercial strategy.
Is your team built for crisis-tested resilience?
Organisations that retained knowledge and capability from past commodity disruptions have proven more resilient. The conversation highlights how legacy agricultural trading houses thrived during crises due to long-standing capabilities. This underlines the importance of preserving institutional memory and experienced leadership, especially those who have operated in volatile environments. There's also a growing recognition that talent trained only in the stable, liberalised post-1990s era may lack critical crisis-response skills.
Are you leveraging logistical and operational expertise?
The importance of logistics and freight expertise has re-emerged as a critical differentiator. Companies that can secure and move commodities during times of disruption (e.g., war, trade breakdowns, shipping insecurity) are at a major advantage. As a result, there is a greater premium on talent with freight, port operations, chartering, and maritime risk experience, particularly those who understand the dynamics of supply disruption and rerouting.
Is your talent strategy ready for greater government intervention?
Periods of war and scarcity consistently lead to government intervention in commodity markets, whether through export controls, nationalisation, or mandated logistics. This means firms need compliance-savvy, politically astute professionals who can manage relationships with state actors and navigate interventionist regimes. The ability to operate effectively in regulated, politicised environments is increasingly essential for leadership roles in energy and commodities.
Are you equipped for the rise of financial-physical hybrids?
With agricultural and energy commodities now treated as financial assets, the market sees increased speculative capital flows, particularly during crises. This adds a layer of complexity, demanding talent that can bridge physical market fundamentals with financial market behaviours. Roles that integrate data analytics, macroeconomics, fund flows, and physical trading are growing in strategic importance.
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