Ultimately, the US faces a stark binary choice: defeat Iran or retreat. Both carry profound implications for the post-war Bretton Woods order that has shaped modern economies and the commodity flows that sustain them. Indeed, it is precisely those commodity flows that both define this binary choice and make commitment to either path so difficult.
Jeff Currie, Co-Founder of 1947 Oil & Gas, returns to the show to unpack this stark reality, its consequences for the world, and his decision to launch an oil and gas company.
Why Markets Are Struggling to Price the Iran Conflict
Paul Chapman: We've now had months of conflict, yet markets still seem uncertain about how to interpret what's happening. Why do you think conviction remains so low?
Jeff Currie: If anything, I've never seen people so unconvicted in either direction. Part of that is fatigue, but I also think there's a lack of understanding about what the endgame actually looks like.
I tend to view the situation as much more binary than most people do. Either the US and Israel ultimately try to finish the job, or the US leaves. The problem is that neither outcome is attractive, which is why so many people continue looking for a middle ground. In my view, that middle ground doesn't really exist.
What Is Really at Stake?
Paul Chapman: Why do you think the implications extend far beyond the Middle East?
Jeff Currie: Because this isn't simply about Iran. The post-war system was built around a bargain: the United States would provide security for global trade routes and, in return, international commerce would largely operate through the US dollar. Countries are increasingly questioning whether that arrangement still works as intended, and if confidence in that system weakens, the implications extend far beyond energy markets. That's why I think what is happening today is about much more than a regional conflict. It's about the foundations of the global order that has underpinned trade for decades.
Is This Really Just an Oil Story?
Paul Chapman: Most headlines focus on crude oil. Is that too narrow?
Jeff Currie: Absolutely. This is a commodity story, not an oil story. Natural gas matters. Diesel matters. Grain markets matter. When multiple commodity markets face disruptions simultaneously, focusing solely on crude overlooks what's happening across the broader system.
What Has This Conflict Revealed About the Future of Warfare?
Paul Chapman: One of the recurring themes in our conversation was technology. What do you think recent conflicts have taught us?
Jeff Currie: One of the biggest lessons is the growing role of drones, artificial intelligence and battery technology. Many of the assumptions that underpinned traditional military thinking are being challenged.
The commodity implications are significant. As these technologies become more important, so do electricity generation, battery supply chains and the resources needed to support them. The technologies changing warfare are also changing resource demand.
This isn't an oil story. It's a commodity story. Natural gas matters. Diesel matters. Grain markets matter. When multiple commodity markets are dealing with disruptions at the same time, the effects become much more significant than any single market.
Why Timing Matters More Than Direction in Commodities
Paul Chapman: Given everything that's happening, where do you still see opportunity?
Jeff Currie: One thing that stands out is the amount of inventory that has already been drawn down. At the same time, supply chains are facing pressure from multiple directions. We have disruptions in shipping routes, pressure on refining capacity, weather-related risks and geopolitical uncertainty.
That's one reason I continue to favour commodities. Whether you're looking at oil, gold or agricultural markets, I think the underlying backdrop remains stronger than many people appreciate. The challenge isn't necessarily the direction. The challenge is timing.
Why Launch an Oil and Gas Company Today?
Paul Chapman: After years of analysing commodity markets, what made you decide to launch 1947 Oil & Gas?
Jeff Currie: Cash flow.
That's ultimately what attracted me to these assets. We're focused on mature shallow-water production with long operating lives, relatively modest capital requirements and the ability to return cash to investors. In a world of higher inflation and higher interest rates, that cash-generating characteristic becomes increasingly valuable.
What Is the Most Important Takeaway for Commodity Professionals?
Paul Chapman: What's the one lesson people in commodity markets should take from this moment?
Jeff Currie: Think in systems, not individual markets.
One of the easiest mistakes to make is analysing a commodity in isolation. What happens in shipping affects energy. Energy affects agriculture. Weather affects supply chains. Geopolitics influences all of them.
The biggest opportunities and risks today are emerging from those connections. That's why understanding the wider system is becoming far more important than focusing on any single commodity market.