Paul Chapman: HALO Talent

The "HALO" (Heavy Assets, Low Obsolescence) investing thesis is a useful way of describing the consequences of half a decade of deglobalisation, digitalisation and decarbonisation. It's also a commodities talent story - argues Paul Chapman, HC Group's Managing Partner.

This article was originally published as part of HC Group's Q2 Market Review 2026. Access the full magazine here to read Paul's editorial - and more. 

Surging CapEx

Trillions of dollars are going into infrastructure (just listen to our recent podcast, "The Great CapEx Surge", with McKinsey's Erikhans Kok). The world needs more electricity, natural gas, rare minerals, copper, steel, cooling and shipping. The world also needs more of more - because of the lessons in supply chain disruption learned from COVID, the war in Ukraine, the Strait of Hormuz (and Truth Social). Previously, it was unthinkable that your staunch ally wouldn’t share their assets or would steal your data. Today, it seems naive not to be prepared.

Geopolitics aside, supply chains are being diversified, on-shored, friend-shored and coveted. Just-in-time has become just-in-case. And commodities sit at its heart – both traditional (e.g. oil) and new (e.g. data).

Great acronyms are not causally associated with great outcomes; heavy assets do not automatically produce good returns if they are poorly managed. Capital-intensive businesses can become an investment trap (ask Warren Buffet) and the speed of technological change can undo obsolescence theories quickly… fusion anyone?

But this sector of the economy, in general, has had a tough decade and those firms still in it have emerged operationally and financially disciplined. The sector has also, for the most part, embraced the commercial complexity in running these assets.

HALO Talent

A key theme of this decade has been asset-backed organisations developing trading teams. It's an idea that even Wall St. is starting to embrace after encouraging first quarter results for sectors like grid infrastructure, data centre power generation, and oil refining and processing.

Nonetheless, a key bottleneck in HALO industries is people: from the skilled workers to build the assets, to the operational teams to run them and the commercial teams to optimise.

Perhaps this renewed interest in the HALO sector - and its great new acronym - will be the catalyst to attract new talent, and old talent back. Rather than joining an infinitely scalable tech start up, or a hedge fund, the top of the class of 2026 might just be joining utilities, refiners and miners.

Paul Chapman

Managing Partner, HC Group 

pchapman@hcgroup.global