"Alex Walsh: Asia Rising – Why Volatility Rewards the Prepared"

If there has been one defining lesson from Asia's energy markets in 2026, it is that adaptability remains the ultimate competitive advantage, says HC Group's Head of Asia Energy, Alex Walsh.

This article was originally published as part of HC Group's Q3 Market Review 2026. Access the full magazine here. 

Mood Shift

12 months ago, my conversations at APPEC were dominated by caution. Trading performance and hiring activity in Asia felt subdued; many organisations said they were focused on efficiency rather than growth. 

This year, factors that might have unsettled markets have instead created opportunity for those best positioned to navigate them. These include those who have built asset-backed trading (ABT) platforms in the region - a move that could unlock a potential $9 billion of trading value from Asia's refineries alone, according to McKinsey.

Singapore's Strength

It’s also been clear that Singapore remains Asia’s commodities capital – benefitting from stability, connectivity, regulatory clarity and deep pools of commercial talent. True, there are pockets where we see talent being offshored, such as Tokyo offices for Japan Power and Renewables markets; or Australia offices for Australia Power and Carbon. For back-office functions, countries such as Malaysia, Thailand, Philippines and India also continue their rise as hubs for global business services. 

However, where it comes to physical and financial oil and gas trading, Singapore still reigns supreme - and is likely to be the main beneficiary of any concerted talent movement from the Middle East.

Market Dynamics

Disrupted Middle Eastern oil and LNG flows delivered Asia’s traders, portfolio managers and risk teams with uncertainty, dislocation and volatility this year. These conditions exposed a growing divide between companies equipped to manage complexity and those still reacting to it. 

For years, many asset-heavy organisations have invested heavily in commercial capabilities, occasionally facing difficult questions about the strategic importance of trading. However, across Asia, some of the strongest performers have been businesses with sophisticated trading capabilities, diversified portfolios and the ability to optimise physical assets.

Compensation Outlook

Will Asia’s strong profits translate into stronger hiring? Our sense is yes – but not immediately. Recruitment activity has been relatively soft over the past six months, yet conversations around succession planning, team expansion and strategic hiring are becoming more common. 

The market feels poised rather than active, with many professionals expected to wait until bonus season before making career decisions. If record years equate to record bonuses, we believe it is unlikely that trading businesses will fund big buy-outs for senior individuals unless it is critical.

As we enter Q4, attention is shifting from market performance to talent retention and growth. Paying competitive bonuses relative to trading performance will be critical. True, there are questions about the value traders bring vs the value inherent in such a market. But following the events of 2022, we saw how a number of companies who underpaid lost talent as a result. Some may have ultimately replaced those people with more expensive and less experienced hires.

Positioning for the Next Phase

If APPEC 2025 was about recalibration, APPEC 2026 felt like a market rediscovering its confidence. Looking ahead, the strategic importance of building a trading team seems no longer up for debate. Creating fully integrated asset-backed trading platforms, and attracting the talent needed, also looks sensible. Companies that match that conviction with investment may find the next phase of growth is already underway.

Alex Walsh,

Portfolio Director & Head of Asia Energy

awalsh@hcgroup.global