In this edition, our Talent Intelligence team examines how the conflict in the Gulf has impacted bargaining power across commodity trading; why some of the highest hiring premiums now sit outside the front office; and where recruitment activity is concentrated across the major global trading hubs.
HC Talent Intelligence data points to an increasingly selective market. Employers have regained leverage overall, but scarcity remains pronounced in roles that support, control and scale trading platforms.
Bargaining Power Returns, Unevenly
Candidates expected an average premium of 22% to change roles in early 2025, according to TI data. Entering 2026, that figure had fallen to 18%, as bonus outcomes moderated and employers became more disciplined on hiring and reward. Sign-ons and bonus guarantees became harder to secure, while deferrals, earn-outs and clawbacks became more common. Base salary also regained importance as the anchor of total reward.
The Gulf conflict disrupted that employer-led reset, but only for part of the market. Many oil desks had generated more P&L by mid-year than in a typical full year, strengthening the position of proven physical traders and bringing guarantees back selectively. Oil, products, freight and LNG benefited most directly, while metals, agriculture and unaffected gas and power markets remained closer to the conditions established earlier in the year.
This is not a wholesale return to candidate-led conditions. Firms are differentiating more sharply between recent performance, persistent scarcity and the capabilities they consider most difficult to replace. Bargaining power has returned, but it remains concentrated in the desks and roles closest to the market dislocation.
One Result, Many Contributors
The strongest retention pressure is not confined to direct P&L roles. In 2025, back-office candidates sought an average premium of 37.5% to change roles, compared with 33.5% in middle office, 32.5% in analytics and approximately 31% across trading. Operations was the exception, at 19%.
These figures do not indicate that support functions are better paid than traders. They show the additional compensation candidates expected to leave an existing employer. On that measure, three of the five functions analysed commanded a higher premium than the trading average, with back office 6.5 percentage points above it.
Since March, the commercial importance of these functions has become more visible:
- Risk teams have monitored exposure across stranded and rerouted cargoes.
- Operations teams have managed physical constraints, delivery disruption and force majeure notices.
- Control and technology functions have handled sanctions checks, war-risk cover and ETRM reconfiguration.
The resulting risk is a mismatch between where value is protected or created and where rewards remain concentrated. For employers, the question is not simply who generated the greatest P&L, but which capabilities would be hardest, slowest or most expensive to replace.
The impacts of the Gulf conflict in 2026 have been spread across trading, analytics, operations and risk, while reward structures remain weighted toward the front of the business.
The UAE: Interrupted, Not Reversed
In 2025, London led the selected hiring hubs in HC Talent Intelligence placement data, followed by Singapore and the UAE. Indexed to London at 100, the UAE recorded 70, ahead of Geneva, Houston and the other hubs assessed. The figures indicate relative hiring activity rather than absolute volumes.
Before the conflict, the UAE was the fastest-rising trading hub in HC’s data. Its growth was supported by national oil company trading arms, sovereign-backed platforms and a hiring model that drew experienced talent from established centres. The conflict interrupted that trajectory, but did not remove its underlying commercial logic.
In 2026, relocation-dependent hiring has slowed, while security, insurance, evacuation and family provisions have become more prominent in relocation discussions. Some front-office and risk activity has also moved temporarily to London, Geneva and Singapore. However, national oil company trading arms and sovereign-backed platforms retain the capital and strategic rationale to continue building trading capability.
The Middle East conflict has not rewritten the commodity trading talent market so much as exposed where it is uneven.
What this Means for 2027
The market is not becoming uniformly more expensive. Bargaining power has returned selectively, contribution extends beyond the trading desk, and the Gulf now requires a stronger employment proposition.
Employers will need to distinguish exceptional short-term performance from persistent scarcity, recognise the wider capabilities on which commercial results depend, and direct retention investment towards roles that would be difficult or costly to replace. In the Gulf, that also means addressing the security, insurance and family considerations now shaping relocation decisions.
The firms best placed for 2027 will be those that take a targeted approach to reward, recognise where this year’s value was created and protected, and invest where the loss of capability would create the greatest disruption.
